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The Impossibility of Forecasting the Natural Gas Market

Oilprice.com -- Let me start by admitting that the future of natural gas is especially difficult to predict. Commodity forecasting is always a pseudo-science at best. At times it seems that its primary function is to make astrology look respectable.

But America has enormous natural gas resources, roughly a 100 year supply. That supply could be the low cost/low pollution energy source that provides a bridge to a better economic and environmental future. Or it may just sit in the ground for some time.

After 25 years in the oil and gas business I spent ten years working in public policy and politics. In many ways that made geophysics seem pretty straightforward. But I did learn at least one valuable lesson: In spite of all the flowery words, there is no more powerful force for change than the market.

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Submitted May 08, 2012 By: NOTSOGRN

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honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:18,828 Points:1,637,220 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: May 11, 2012 11:02:54 PM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse forecasting... hmm... ya mean accuracy like the weather forecast for Days 7 through 10?
1006 Champion Author Birmingham Posts:1,106 Points:1,371,110 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: May 11, 2012 5:32:51 AM Ignore 1006 Report Abuse but can we depend
sparky808 Champion Author Honolulu Posts:3,144 Points:625,660 Joined:Sep 2011	Message Posted: May 9, 2012 12:30:48 PM Ignore sparky808 Report Abuse Thank you for posting.
ROSYMI Champion Author Michigan Posts:1,028 Points:388,600 Joined:Nov 2011	Message Posted: May 9, 2012 10:22:56 AM Ignore ROSYMI Report Abuse natural gas is also to much
tomok Champion Author Portland Posts:33,598 Points:2,373,210 Joined:Aug 2006	Message Posted: May 9, 2012 2:11:00 AM Ignore tomok Report Abuse There are too many factors and the government involved in forecasting the Natural Gas market and prices. Develop Natural Gas to fuel a vehicle and have many more vehicles using natural gas. Natural gas can be one of many fuels for vehicles and trucks to use. Keep natural gas for heating homes – low priced! Whatever the size or shape of the vehicle, Produce and ‘Drive’ vehicles with high MPG, are very reliable, have a ‘reasonable’ cost and a good ‘value’ for the money. Consider using other forms of less expensive transportation to lower your cost, if possible! The price of fuel at the pump is too high! 12/22/2012!
TIGERPAW46 Champion Author Florida Posts:7,241 Points:1,379,620 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:46:47 PM Ignore TIGERPAW46 Report Abuse Right N3tbc, We have to use the least expensive available while developing alternate energy. At the same time we can do so as clean as possible. many alternates including Ethanol are worse than reg. gas without Ethanol.
n3tbc Veteran Author Wilmington Posts:355 Points:333,575 Joined:Sep 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:39:49 PM Ignore n3tbc Report Abuse We do need to move away from fossil fuels but it will take time. Oil and gas is what we use now and will be here for some time to come. In the past it was coal and wood - times change and so will our fuel sources.
granitestater Champion Author New Hampshire Posts:8,980 Points:1,458,450 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:39:41 PM Ignore granitestater Report Abuse The question is about building the infrastructure needed to convert ICE vehicles to nat gas use...
Eugenian Champion Author Oregon Posts:2,007 Points:389,830 Joined:Oct 2009	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:37:37 PM Ignore Eugenian Report Abuse Price speculation is a risky business.
tedjm1 Champion Author New York Posts:5,609 Points:800,300 Joined:Dec 2006	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:33:53 PM Ignore tedjm1 Report Abuse We need to be like George Jetson.
us4usa Champion Author Missouri Posts:6,120 Points:1,137,585 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:30:33 PM Ignore us4usa Report Abuse In 50/75 years they will find a way to power cars and homes... We need to work on the next 3/5 years...
HYEgasCA Champion Author Fresno Posts:2,126 Points:934,425 Joined:Dec 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:30:29 PM Ignore HYEgasCA Report Abuse "Oh ya!! We all share in the cost" Gosh....that sound so good. You share what you want, and Ill share what I want. OK Little Man!!
preacherboyFL Veteran Author Orlando Posts:444 Points:125,860 Joined:Feb 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:29:28 PM Ignore preacherboyFL Report Abuse Jesus said, "I tell you the truth, whoever hears my word and believes him who sent me has eternal life and will not be condemned; he has crossed over from death to life.
KrsnaDragon Champion Author Montreal Posts:2,547 Points:559,000 Joined:Nov 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:28:36 PM Ignore KrsnaDragon Report Abuse LOL, "clean coal"!
viperND Champion Author South Bend Posts:3,457 Points:763,640 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:28:34 PM Ignore viperND Report Abuse :/
BluWahoo Champion Author Pensacola Posts:3,373 Points:405,965 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:27:59 PM Ignore BluWahoo Report Abuse Natural Gas for homes has increased too much over the past 5 years.
BobD2009 Champion Author Long Island Posts:7,129 Points:1,267,485 Joined:Apr 2009	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:24:06 PM Ignore BobD2009 Report Abuse So they are guessing?
ricebike Champion Author New Jersey Posts:10,106 Points:1,870,850 Joined:Oct 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:23:43 PM Ignore ricebike Report Abuse Z51Corvette says "Should be simple... Supply and Demand!" if you believe that, then you also believe in unicorns? speculators will find a way to take that supply-demand equation out of the loop when this gets mainstream
Aviator_Rob Champion Author New York Posts:3,992 Points:440,815 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:21:34 PM Ignore Aviator_Rob Report Abuse Well, HYEgasCA. I'm a big believer in the concept that if everyone is going to share in the benefit, they should share in the cost. Everyone benefits from cleaner air so what exactly is your argument? [Edited by: Aviator_Rob at 5/9/2012 12:23:26 AM EST]
Agarre Champion Author Richmond Posts:1,335 Points:263,785 Joined:Feb 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:20:26 PM Ignore Agarre Report Abuse ok
Blue48 Champion Author Illinois Posts:7,445 Points:1,665,645 Joined:Feb 2007	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:20:04 PM Ignore Blue48 Report Abuse TAKE A GUESS!
GigHarborHound Champion Author Tacoma Posts:2,669 Points:514,240 Joined:Sep 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:19:11 PM Ignore GigHarborHound Report Abuse DUH!!!!!
crreed1 Champion Author West Virginia Posts:2,100 Points:2,550,715 Joined:May 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:19:06 PM Ignore crreed1 Report Abuse we will see
Toppers Champion Author Atlanta Posts:9,152 Points:2,498,395 Joined:Mar 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:18:45 PM Ignore Toppers Report Abuse Lookin' good for the US!
joel27nc Champion Author Raleigh Posts:10,677 Points:1,886,070 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:18:27 PM Ignore joel27nc Report Abuse What goes around, eventually comes around. Don't give up on natural gas.
Z51Corvette Champion Author Austin Posts:8,608 Points:1,697,410 Joined:Jan 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:17:41 PM Ignore Z51Corvette Report Abuse Should besimple... Supply and Demand!
frostyWV Champion Author West Virginia Posts:2,339 Points:519,235 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:17:01 PM Ignore frostyWV Report Abuse time will tell.
Bubba44612 Champion Author Ohio Posts:7,531 Points:1,904,385 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:16:52 PM Ignore Bubba44612 Report Abuse Once they get the approval to export it watch the price go way up.
FlyNFool Champion Author South Carolina Posts:8,379 Points:1,712,675 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:16:19 PM Ignore FlyNFool Report Abuse Supply and demand.
millerin Champion Author Orlando Posts:2,332 Points:487,315 Joined:Jan 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:12:14 PM Ignore millerin Report Abuse hmmm...
regout Champion Author Quebec Posts:3,095 Points:860,405 Joined:May 2010	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:11:28 PM Ignore regout Report Abuse Very good.
bvrbill Champion Author Eugene Posts:3,440 Points:546,000 Joined:Jul 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:10:02 PM Ignore bvrbill Report Abuse Good article.
miser709 Champion Author Grand Rapids Posts:1,268 Points:1,094,825 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:09:41 PM Ignore miser709 Report Abuse Good!
rawdog1313 Champion Author Lexington Posts:3,439 Points:1,670,505 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:09:37 PM Ignore rawdog1313 Report Abuse Regulate the market............
TheeRedRam Champion Author Hartford Posts:3,303 Points:700,335 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:09:34 PM Ignore TheeRedRam Report Abuse Hummmmmm
HYEgasCA Champion Author Fresno Posts:2,126 Points:934,425 Joined:Dec 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:09:28 PM Ignore HYEgasCA Report Abuse Hey Aviator Rob, instead of telling us what we need, go out and invent some alternatives. Now that doesn't mean with my money. You can use yours for that. Also your not one of the those guys who tells everyone what to do while sitting on their butts?
umitb Champion Author Indianapolis Posts:3,823 Points:871,140 Joined:Apr 2010	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:08:51 PM Ignore umitb Report Abuse ok
jem069 Champion Author Detroit Posts:2,679 Points:714,780 Joined:Jan 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:08:28 PM Ignore jem069 Report Abuse Ok
laynetc Champion Author Washington Posts:1,237 Points:242,955 Joined:Feb 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:07:17 PM Ignore laynetc Report Abuse 100 years sounds like a long time -- but in 80 years the crisis will begin. How about the geo-thermal?
PrinceLH Champion Author Ontario Posts:2,832 Points:565,745 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:02:56 PM Ignore PrinceLH Report Abuse Speculators must be sent packing.
toytech3 All-Star Author Chicago Posts:917 Points:612,770 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 11:00:58 PM Ignore toytech3 Report Abuse Get rid of the speculators
DutchTreatMI Champion Author Grand Rapids Posts:3,446 Points:779,165 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 10:58:46 PM Ignore DutchTreatMI Report Abuse Speculation involved here too.
Aviator_Rob Champion Author New York Posts:3,992 Points:440,815 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 10:57:49 PM Ignore Aviator_Rob Report Abuse I'm concerned whenever anyone predicts there's a hundred year supply of anything. What will our grandchildren do in 101 years after we've used up everything? Doesn't anyone believe in saving something for future generations? We need to stop kicking the can down the road and develop fossil fuel alternatives now. There's no guarantee it'll be an easy fix and we're just wasting time with all this "Drill baby, drill!"
Dodge_Me Champion Author Atlanta Posts:2,214 Points:576,480 Joined:Mar 2006	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 10:57:34 PM Ignore Dodge_Me Report Abuse yeah right, forecast what? [Edited by: Dodge_Me at 5/8/2012 11:57:42 PM EST]
g747 Champion Author Mobile Posts:4,682 Points:961,370 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 10:57:29 PM Ignore g747 Report Abuse I agree!!!!!!!!.
zaq001 Champion Author Atlanta Posts:4,119 Points:1,500,755 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 10:57:25 PM Ignore zaq001 Report Abuse ok
bonzoonfmb Champion Author Florida Posts:1,817 Points:664,910 Joined:Feb 2010	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 10:57:23 PM Ignore bonzoonfmb Report Abuse Just wait for the speculators to make an impact.
livedream Champion Author Michigan Posts:3,845 Points:782,010 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 10:56:22 PM Ignore livedream Report Abuse This is an expected stance from Oilprice.com -- It leaves price volatility wide open.
Aviator_Rob Champion Author New York Posts:3,992 Points:440,815 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 10:52:41 PM Ignore Aviator_Rob Report Abuse I like what milespergallon said about hydrogen as an alternative fuel but where will the hydrogen come from? You can't drill for hydrogen. Currently, it comes from converting natural gas as a feedstock into hydrogen and carbon dioxide. Creating hydrogen through electrolysis sounds great but it takes more energy to get the hydrogen than what you get FROM the hydrogen.
5kvdave All-Star Author Los Angeles Posts:688 Points:350,000 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 10:52:08 PM Ignore 5kvdave Report Abuse Like the weather.