Sealer
Champion Author
Charleston
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Message Posted: Apr 22, 2008 1:55:13 PM
91Firebird, you are incorect about ANWR. Congress has blocked attempts to allow drilling there for years. If we had opened it up in the 1990s, we'd be getting full production from there now. As for 2 years of oil, it is thouoght that ANWR contains enough to supply the whole country for 2 years, but that would actually be more like 10% of our needs for 20 years (which is a whole lot of oil).
And on the demand side, any drop in demand is a drop in demand (not a demand shift). The icreasing presence of China and India in the marketplace means that the demand drop would have less impact, perhaps canceling out a demand increase there, but there would still be less total demand than if we hadn't lowered our consumption.
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91Firebird
Champion Author
Oklahoma City
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Message Posted: Apr 22, 2008 11:14:09 AM
"If that is the case, then there it would also follow that there is no logical reason to conserve, unless the entire world would conserve."
From an economics perspective, correct. Welcome to the global economy.
The only reason to conserve is to keep more money in your pocket.
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da1vek
Champion Author
Dayton
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Message Posted: Apr 22, 2008 11:10:24 AM
So, 91Firebird, do I understand correctly that you are saying that a (for argument's sake) 10% reduction in actual usage--not just shifting the day we buy gasoline from one day to another or shifting the company from which we buy it from one to another--would simply result in an oversupply for China, meaning lower prices there while prices remain the same here?
If so, that's an interesting concpt that merits consideration.
If that is the case, then there it would also follow that there is no logical reason to conserve, unless the entire world would conserve.
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91Firebird
Champion Author
Oklahoma City
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Message Posted: Apr 22, 2008 11:03:46 AM
A couple things on your blog:
There are no restrictions on ANWR now that Shrub lifted the environmental blocks. The oil companies just don't want to spend billions to get 2 years of oil. It doesn't make financial sense.
"By not driving, the demand for the gasoline would go down, thereby costing the oil and gasoline companies something."
This would simply be a demand shift, rather than a demand reduction. The oil companies would ship less to us and more to China. I'm sure they would be happy to pick up our slack.
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